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Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfærdeligheds princip

Forfatter(e)
Læge Lars Folkestad, ph.d.-studerende Michael Gejl Jensen, læge Mikkel Brabrand, læge Dan Brun Petersen, afdelingslæge Peter Hallas & ledende overlæge Torben Knudsen Sydvestjysk Sygehus Esbjerg, Medicinsk Center og Medicinsk Gastroenterologisk Afdeling, Aarhus Universitet, Farmakologisk Institut, Kolding Sygehus, Akut Modtagesfdeling, og Rigshospitalet, Juliane Marie Centeret, Anæstesiologisk afdeling 4013
Reference: 
Ugeskr Læger 2009;171(51):3775-3779
Blad nummer: 
Sidetal: 
3775-3779
Summary Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better Ugeskr Læger 2009;171(51):3775-3779 We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt). Material and methods: Questionnaire survey performed at the Regional Hospital of Esbjerg 18-19 September 2009 using staff as questionnaire respondents. Results: We found a discrepancy between the mathematical and observed probability in both scenarios, 64% and 68% of the cases in the two scenarios, respectively. We also found that there is a negative correlation between age and the probability that one will win a coin toss, but a positive correlation between age and choosing the correct key. The results lacked any statistical significance. Conclusion: We hypothesised that you will always loose in a coin toss and never choose the correct key when there are two choices. The study demonstrated that this was incorrect, but there was a difference between the mathematical and the observed probabilities in most of the cases.
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